Updated Power Rankings

Not Much Change At the Top

Jan 08, 2024

Team rankings are calculated using the predictive model I use to make my daily predictions (click here for the model description). For power rankings, I use that model to predict the results of each team playing every other team twice (home and away). From there, the team’s predicted winning percentage becomes their power rating. Team sheets (available here) are a good starting point to understand why a team is ranked where they are, but also check out the model’s prediction errors for each team here.

I’ll highlight and discuss my Top 25 first and then go through the full rankings by conference.

Top 25

Highlights

The Top 10 sees the return of Arizona after huge wins over Colorado and Utah.
- However, the rest of the Top 10 are largely unchanged.
New Mexico’s drop is largely the result of an overall drop in their “four factors” margins and their team error.
Gonzaga returns to the rankings after demolishing a pair of conference foes.
Oklahoma gets a slight reward for their win over Iowa State, but Iowa State maintains its #2 spot.

Biggest Surprise

Iowa State at #2
- The Cyclones’ metrics took a hit after the loss to Oklahoma, but not enough to drop them.
- They remain the 2nd best team in turnovers per possession margin.
- The model still likes their early season crushing of the following teams:
  - Lindenwood
  - Grambling State
  - Iowa
  - Prairie View A&M
- Iowa State overperformed model expectations by an average of 24.4 points in these games, and it also inflated their “four factors” margins.
- Keep an eye on Iowa State as they continue to run into tougher opponents throughout Big 12 play.
  - The same can be said of Texas Christian, Brigham Young, and Cincinnati.
  - Additionally, Gonzaga may race into the Top 10 if they continue to abuse their conference opponents.