NCAA Men's Basketball Rankings Update - February 10, 2025

Introduction

Team rankings are calculated using the predictive model I use to make my daily predictions (click here for the model description). However, there is one crucial update that I would like to share with you all: I am now adjusting each of the performance metrics to account for the strength of opponent in each of those metrics.

This is not a typical power ranking that sorts teams on wins and losses, nor is it a resume ranking, which would evaluate the quality of a team’s wins and losses. It is a projection of where I expect teams finish the season based on their current performance. It should bear some resemblance to other predictive models such as KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Evan Miya.

I’ll highlight and discuss my Top 25 first and then post the full rankings.

Top 25

Highlights

• Auburn reclaims the #1 spot

• #16 California-Los Angeles and #23 Saint Mary’s saw the biggest improvement (+7)

  • #14 Saint John’s gets an honorable mention

• #17 Kentucky and #25 North Carolina dropped the most (-4)

Biggest Surprises

A quick note: this section reflects disparities between where I expected a team to land, and where they rank in the model. It does not necessarily mean that I disagree with my model, but it offers me a chance to explain both my model and my perceptions in more detail. You can see a detailed breakdown of each team’s ranking here.

• #5 Alabama

  • This is surprising, not because many people would disagree with it, but because of why Alabama is #5.

  • Alabama has phenomenal preseason metrics, but their performance metrics put them closer to #17

    • The Tide have a poor turnovers per possession differential

      • For most games this has been fine.

        • Alabama’s shooting ability, particularly from 3, has more than made up for this.

      • However, Alabama faces probably their most difficult stretch of games to come, and this could prove to be fatal flaw.

  • It is true that no team plays the game perfectly, but most of the other Zabbottry Top 25 teams all cover the Four Factors particularly well.

  • You can see all the data behind the rankings here