NCAA Men's Basketball Rankings Update - January 13, 2025
Introduction
Team rankings are calculated using the predictive model I use to make my daily predictions (click here for the model description). However, there is one crucial update that I would like to share with you all: I am now adjusting each of the performance metrics to account for the strength of opponent in each of those metrics.
For power rankings, I use that model to predict the results of each team playing every other team on a neutral court and then use the average predicted scoring margin as that team’s power rating.
This is not a typical power ranking that sorts teams on wins and losses, nor is it a resume ranking, which would evaluate the quality of a team’s wins and losses. It is a projection of where I expect teams finish the season based on their current performance. It should bear some resemblance to other predictive models such as KenPom, Bart Torvik, and Evan Miya.
I’ll highlight and discuss my Top 25 first and then go through the full rankings by conference.
Top 25
Highlights
Three Big 12 teams in the Top 5
#11 Mississippi (+8) and #16 Florida (+5) are the biggest climbers this week.
#13 Texas Tech (+4), #19 Purdue (+4), and #22 Saint John’s (+4) were also impressive.
#20 Cincinnati (-9) and #21 California-Los Angeles (-6) take the biggest tumble.
Biggest Surprises
A quick note: this section reflects disparities between where I expected a team to land, and where they rank in the model. It does not necessarily mean that I disagree with my model, but it offers me a chance to explain both my model and my perceptions in more detail.
No Michigan (Currently #40)
The Wolverines, despite their Top 10 performance metrics, are weighed down by preseason factors.
Most notably, last season’s average scoring margin and hiring a new coach.
Here’s the uncomfortable bit:
Those preseason metrics won’t go away or taper off because they are already weighted to the end of the season.
As uncomfortable as that is to write, those preseason metrics tend to increase in importance the longer the season goes.
For most teams, they help make more accurate predictions and assessments of where the team will finish the season.
Is Michigan’s current performance level sustainable or will the Wolverines slide?
Full Rankings
