NCAA Men's Basketball Predictions

Conference tournaments are now in full swing, so that is something I will be tracking: Do conference tournaments behave differently than regular season games? Jump down to the bottom to see how the model is coping with the chaos of these games.

Predictions are listed in order of game time with the predicted winner and margin of victory. Scoring margin is the predicted scoring margin based on the model described here.

You can still see predictions based exclusively on preseason data at 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Predictions | Tableau Public.

I will continue to track how well preseason data alone is able to predict future outcomes. This will help us determine how far out it is useful.

Predictions for March 10, 2024

The table shows the team’s predicted scoring margin with the color shaded to draw attention to larger spreads.

For more details, including a breakdown of how much each variable plays in determining the predicted scoring margin, please visit 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Predictions | Tableau Public.

Prediction Results Summary (To Date)

Conference Tournament Tracker

Please visit 2024 NCAA Men's Basketball Predictions | Tableau Public for more information on model success this season as well as the ability to see the relative weights of each metric on the team’s scoring margin. And you can now read a pretty comprehensive description of the model here.